overused
by Redaktionen ~ December 23rd, 2009. Filed under: Uncategorized.Bra rolig artikel på Bloomberg om de mest “överanvända” NYA orden under 2009. Vi lär ju oss nya ord och uttryck på finansmarknaden hela tiden. Vad månde det bli för 2010?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aY1uat1GZmnw
December 23rd, 2009 at 22:09
Senaste nytt om ryska finansmarknader med arkiv samt forum på http://www.russiaonline.se/ryska_aktier.html
December 28th, 2009 at 12:36
Unprecedented har precis alla förutsättningar fortsätta toppa 2010 med. Jobless recovery kommer fortsätta vara ordet/temat nästa år med, så dumt så dumt…
Andra ord som utan tvekan kommer användas flitigt nästa år är, Fiatmoney, Fiscal Suicide, Govenment debt.
http://vidsynt.wordpress.com/
December 28th, 2009 at 18:05
How about: D O U B L E D I P ? ? ?
January 8th, 2010 at 16:36
HSBC om dagens siffra
December nonfarm payrolls fell by 85k (consensus 0k). November was revised up to +4k from -11k, the first job increase since December 2007. October was revised lower to -127k, so that net revisions to the last two months totalled -1k.The industry breakdown of payrolls was mixed. The payroll diffusion index slipped to 40 from 42.4, indicating that 60% of industries are still cutting back their workforces. Relatively big losses came from construction (-53k), manufacturing (-27k), and government (-21k). However, ISM manufacturing employment has climbed above 50, and losses in this sector should continue to recede gradually over the first quarter.
Private service-sector industries managed to add jobs for the second month in a row, up 17k after a 58k rise in November. Temporary help climbed for the fifth consecutive month, rising by 47k. Temporary work employment is up 166k since July but is still down 762k since the peak all the way back in December 2006. Therefore, companies are likely to continue to meet their needs through short-term hiring in the months ahead, and it will take longer to see sustainable growth in permanent jobs.
In many respects, today’s report was somewhat fortunate not to have seen a further increase in the unemployment rate thanks to another large drop in the labor force participation rate (from 64.9% in November to 64.6% in December), something which has been a common feature of the latest employment reports. But the rise in temporary hiring for the upcoming Census will virtually guarantee some net employment growth in Q1 2010 and the clear turn in the initial claims data also suggests that the unemployment rate is likely to have peaked at just above the 10 per cent level. The question for policy, however, is the speed with which the jobless rate declines. Although the various FOMC members appear to hold a range of opinions as to how much of a decline in unemployment is required before tightening begins, all seem to be in agreement that a decline is a necessary but not sufficient condition before higher rates are considered.
We believe that probable stickiness of the unemployment rate around the 10 per cent level could be a source of disappointment in 2010 and beyond. The decline in US employment has certainly matched that of GDP more closely than in other economies, and it seems strange to talk of an overhang of labour given the severity of the earlier decline in payrolls. But with measures such as the U6 gauge of unemployment (including discouraged and part-time workers) actually picking up in December and the average work week remaining around record lows, it’s clear that a rising level of demand for labour may not fully feed through to strong levels of job creation. In particular, the very low level of the participation rate will also act as a powerful break upon the rate at which the unemployment rate can decline should discouraged workers return to the labour force. Policymakers will, however, have to address the separate question of how easily and quickly much of this labor can be reintegrated back into the workforce, given that an astonishing 39.8% of the unemployed have now been out of work for more than six months.
Overall, however, we believe that the Fed will have been encouraged by the imminent prospect of positive jobs growth suggested by today’s report, but will equally have seen little cause to reconsider the view that rates are likely to remain at current levels for an extended period.
Stuart Green/Ryan Wang
January 14th, 2010 at 22:47
nu får du gärna komma tillbaka…har tröttnat på “begåvningarna” på di, realtid, svd m fl
January 15th, 2010 at 09:44
borslank.se är en annan bra sida som jag kollar varje orgon
January 15th, 2010 at 17:48
Är sidan nere??
January 18th, 2010 at 11:50
Tjena Jon, nu far det vara slut pa Sangria drinkandet. Vi behover guidance!
MVH
E
January 19th, 2010 at 00:19
Kom tillbaks redaktionen! Please! Skulle vara kul att läsa mer av din blogg!!
January 20th, 2010 at 21:17
Ett vykort från semestern är kanske det minsta man kan begära?
January 21st, 2010 at 11:08
Någon här som kollat på shipping sidan, den sektorn verkar rejält nerkörd. Kanske en potentiel turnaround. Skulle vara interssant om någon har någon åsikt på CCOR B eller RABT B.
January 21st, 2010 at 11:26
dra ut ett tio ars chart pa CCOR, harligt cyklisk.
problemet denna gang ar val att det byggdes sa mycket fartyg under 2003-2007 som blir klara nu sa det finns ju en sadan overkapacitet som kommer att tynga fraktpriser den har “boomen”, aven senare i cykeln.
fordel CCOR som har dubbelskrov fartyg, de kan vinna pa eventuella miljo-regleringar i framtiden (manga av varldens befintliga fartyg ar ju i anskramligt skick miljo-massigt). Men det ar ju ett aber att forsoka forutspa sant.
jag och min kare far har varit inne och ute i CCOR de senaste 10 aren men jag ar orolig denna gang, jag haller mig undan shipping den har cykeln pga ovanstande
January 21st, 2010 at 13:11
Jo jag håller mä! Men frågan är om inte de låga skrotpriserna, som varit, har gjort att överkapiciteten är större än vad den borde vara. Låt oss leka med tanken att skrotpriserna stiger under 2010, då finns väl en möjlighet att de fartygen som man lagt upp (och de ingår väl i kapasitets statistiken?) skrotas och då försvinner en del av överkapaciteten.
Men jag håller med d ser inte ditrekt bra ut, men turnaround cases brukar jo inte göra d, då är d jo inget turnaround B-).
En av anledningerna till att jag börjat kolla på detta är att båda ccor och Rabt bröt sig ur den negativa trenden för ett litet tag sen och sen köpte SGL på callen igår och har har köpt idag mä, samtidigt som EPB och REM har nettoköpt en del senaste veckan.
Klart att detta är inget allin case, men ta mig fan om inte fraktprisbilden kommer se bättre ut om vi tar oss in i en högkonjunktur om ett par år och har man en uppgående tro på olje priset, lär väl d påverka fraktpriserna för oljeprodukter och därmed CCOR.
Lång CCOR och RABT på 1-3 år, skulle jo vara trevligt att ha ett par potentiella flerdubblare i portföljen, även om risken finns där!
Har du några andra förslag på underdogs???
January 21st, 2010 at 18:45
* China Dec 4Q GDP +10.7% (con 10.5%)
Dec CPI +1.9% (con 1.4%)
Retail Sales +17.5% (con 16.3%)
China IP +18.5% (con 19.6%)
China FAI +30.5% (con 31.5%)
China PPI + 1.7% (con 0.8%)
CHINA - Trading small small…Decent batch of Chinese Economic data out overnight Annual GDP came in at 8.7% v 8.5%, Real GDP 10.7% v 10.5%, PPI 1.7% v 0.8%, CPI 1.9% v 1.4% and IP at 18.5% v 19.6%.
In our view, this set of data is stronger than expected, and it should give Beijing more confidence on growth outlook.But it is not enough to make Beijing completely comfortable to accelerate the process of monetary tightening. Exports remains as a cause of concern. Despite a 17.7% yoy surge in exports in December, the external environment remains fragile. A sustained recovery in exports is crucial for China’s labour market: China: Stronger growth and rising inflation
The economy expanded by 10.7% yoy in 4Q09 in real terms, further accelerated from 9.1% (revised) yoy in 3Q09. This is stronger than our estimate and market’s consensus. On a quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) annualized basis, we estimate that the economy has expanded by 10.4%, versus 10.2% in 3Q09. Retail sales rose 17.5% yoy in December, and fixed asset investment moderated to 19.2% YoY, compared to 23.9%yoy and 31.6% yoy in the prior two months. Industrial production growth was 18.5% yoy versus 19.2% in November, but higher than 16.1% yoy in October. The surprising fact is that CPI inflation accelerated to 1.9% yoy (up 1% MoM), from 0.6% in November, while PPI was up by 1.7% yoy from -2.1% yoy (up 1% MoM). For all yearly growth data, please be aware that there is base effect created by the onset of the global credit crisis in 4Q09.
The inflationary pressure takes the highlight. Consumer prices surged in December, driven by the rise of food and utility prices, and the worst snow storms in history in many areas further added the stress. The strong inflation trend is likely to continue. The extraordinarily strong lending seen in 2009 and rapid increase in property prices is believed to have raise the inflation expectation of the public. Producer prices also showed a strong surge in December as public infrastructure investment continue. Further, a round of salary hike seems to have taken place, as Beijing attempts to boost consumption. While it is positive to growth and consumption, it will inevitably push up the inflation, perhaps in H210.
On growth, the headline GDP was stronger than we thought, but it is consistent with the latest power consumption data. Further, it confirms our view derived from the PMI data that inventory correction in some key areas have finished or near the end. Fixed asset investment growth moderated towards the year-end partially due to a rising statistical base, but it is still a bit too weak as banks refrained from infrastructure lending in Q409. The strong consumption stimulus measures launched by the government is become increasingly effective, pushing up retail sales by 17.5% yoy towards the year end.
For policy implications, we look for a minor acceleration in “quantative tightening” through lending restrictions and raising reserve requirement ratio. The central bank may well launch punitive measures against those aggressive lenders. This is the beginning of China’s “normalization in monetary condition”, but we believe the process will be tentative and gradual. We do not see interest rate movement for now, as Beijing is concerned about hot money inflows. The rate hike probably will not happen until (1) the Fed starts to raise USD interest rates or (2) China’s own inflation reaches above 3%.
For now, we think China is in a relatively sweet spot, where growth is strengthening while the “normalization” measures are still too mild to make a difference in the real economy. The risk is in H210, when property market face a sudden increase in new supply while the central bank takes more aggressive tightening in response to further rise in inflation.
January 22nd, 2010 at 08:52
Jag har suttit pa doggande BEF i 15 manader och talmodigt vantar ut en vandning i vetepriserna + asset value appreciation av deras leasingavtal pa jordbruksmark (pga att det blir trangt i framtiden nar manga internationella spelare vill at samma mark for framtida jordbruk)
-Man vill ju vara langsiktig och deras business ar onekligen “straight forward” a la Buffet maner, latt att forsta vad de haller pa med.
-Kinnevik och Vostok duktiga agare och brukar ha bra koll pa sina portfoljbolag. Det ar lite cowboy ibland men samtidigt har de en stringent cost control
-De har skurit kostnader ocksa i bolaget enl q3 forra aret
-nuvarande kassa samt trenden i kassaflodet borde racka for att inte behova gora en till emission
- Om inte annat finns alltid chansen att agarna koper tillbaka bolaget, som de gjorde med Kontakt East Holding. Sannolikheten troligen liten dock..
- jag tror att BEF blir en lang seg resa men andock en dubblare pa 2 ars sikt. Det racker for min del.
January 22nd, 2010 at 11:10
Jo BEF har jag kollat på mä, ägde den förra våren från 19 till 27, sen har jag inte tyckt att den varit interssant, däremot kan man jo inte låta bli att snegla på BULL VETE H, bottnade på 28 kr i sep 09 och verkar vända runt 28 nu igen. Grejen är bara att jag inte riktigt har insikten för att kunna motivera caset´på kort sikt, men både BEF och VETE på väldigt långsikt borde vara bra, mjed den befolkningsutveckling vi troligtvis kommer få de nästa åren så lär efterfrågan på “Mat” öka, om jag minns rätt finns d någon uträkning som tyder på att jordens befolkning ska öka exponentielt och hamna på 15 mia i 2050 eller var d 12 mia. Söka på “exponentiel money in a finite world, chris martensson” om du vill ha excakta ciffre, artikeln är dock lite av en dommedags profetia om du frågar mig, omhandlar även peakoil!
January 22nd, 2010 at 11:12
här är länken, ganska kul läsning!
http://www.chrismartenson.com/martensonreport/exponential-money-finite-world
January 26th, 2010 at 16:27
HHMM Rätt bra sug efter CCOR idag. Sen 15.10 har de tok köpt, från 18.70 uptill nu 20,00, undra om d kan vara något roligt på gång!
January 26th, 2010 at 16:28
Och med de, menar jag NON har tok köpt! B-)
January 27th, 2010 at 16:40
HEHE Misstänker att Avanza har stulit mitt case, d tackar jag för.
https://www.avanza.se/aza/press/press_article.jsp?article=124783