finansblogg.com

Jim O’Neills senaste:
As macro markets search for clear  winning trends, news of the retirement of  a certain macro legend must have got many seasoned participants thinking ” what am I doing this for still?”. The answer ,beyond , a/ needing an income, and b/not being wanted at home all day long,  presumably includes the ongoing fascination of the changing world, of which a considerable number of pieces of evidence have again presented themselves this week. Amongst things that caught my attention, include;

1. The US down, but not-yet -out. Some of us have easily dismissed the idea of a ” double dip” in the world, and even the US, but after yesterday’s weekly job claims and the latest Philly Fed survey, the notion for the US, is becoming not quite so simple to pour scorn on. The run of considerably disappointing data continues with now two of the most important coincident /leading indicators looking quite troubling. Moreover for anyone who believes in the persistent dominance of the US economy, yesterday’s news was clearly not good.

1. Are US financial conditions more important than the US economy, though?  Returning to a theme I have discussed previously , the big question more people should ask, is which is more important for the rest of the world, the US economy, or its financial conditions?

Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in Autumn 2008, the world was hit by two shocks, one the subsequent recession in the US, two the freezing of global, but especially US financial markets. US financial conditions tightened dramatically. In recent weeks, not least because of the polices of the Fed, US financial conditions continue to be very accommodative, despite the evidence of the US economy. This means, US corporate, and the rest of the world don’t face this repeat shock-at least yet.

In this regard, amongst many important pieces to read on the beach from our global ECS team , is Jari Stehn’s US Daily of August 17^th. In it, he shows in detail how US financial conditions have moved, especially demonstrating the importance of the Fed’s unconventional steps. This is probably going to be extremely important if the US economy continues with this “soft patch”.

Linked to the Fed’s policies, the latest loan officers survey suggests there is a further improvement going on in terms of credit availability, etc. Similarly , our Financial Stress Index ( GS FSI) after its brief May/June hiatus, remains quite  quiet..

1. US corporates are certainly not out, and maybe nowhere down. One of the most interesting developments of the week includes news of Levi Strauss launching ” Denizen”, which according to the FT story, is the first time this iconic cultural brand of the US’s glory days has launched a brand outside the US. In a second equally fascinating development, McDonalds announced they had undertaken a CNY denominated private placement in Hong Kong.

I suspect we will see plenty more of these two  kind of developments.

1. US call centres as cheap as India? In another sign that the US is not “out”, the FT reported a fascinating story earlier in the week, quoting the CEO of Genpact, that they now found it as cheap to employ people in the US in call centres as India, and were planning to treble their workforce in the next 3 years.

1. US education still the best. In probably the most important sign that the US is far from out- although this could be a lagging statistic, in the latest well recognized Shanghai Jia Tong Top 500 Universities of the World survey , the Top 10  still includes 8 from the US. In fact, the only 2 outside were Cambridge (5^th) and Oxford (10^th).  The US actually has 54 of the top 100.   As a sign of things changing, China now has 54 of the top 500,  which has more than doubled since 2004, while Japan has 25, declining steadily. The UK has 38 still, which is none too shabby in my judgement.

1. The world is not the US. Despite the highly disappointing US data, our Advanced Global Leading Indicator actually ticked up slightly in August, as discussed by Anna Stupnytska  and Stacy Carlson after its release yesterday.  Of course, most financial participants think this is not a sustainable position with the US evidence, but we shall see. In this regard, the slight ongoing easing of Chinese financial conditions is highly important, as is  the -growing-positive noises coming from German policymakers , highly interesting.  The Bundesbank added their voice to that of the Economics Ministry yesterday, both now talking about self sustaining growth.

It is going to be extremely interesting to watch  the next indicators out of Germany, especially anything to do with domestic demand. In this regard, another important ” read” was Dirk Schumacher’s dismantling of the over rated German ZEW index that he published on August 18^th. In the same spirit, Nick Kojucharov’s  European Chart of the Day on the same 18^th, showing just less infrequent it has been than many people realise-if you go back far enough-for European GDP to outpace the US, is another important read.

1. Even the UK is not the US, despite the fiscal aggressiveness. Yesterday we had two fresh “positive” surprises to puncture the remarkable gloom that transmits via the UK media, with both retail sales and the latest CBI Industrial Trends survey, coming through on the upside. Looking at the UK evidence and contrasting it with the US is especially interesting given all the obvious similarities and the fact that the UK has embarked on such a tough fiscal tightening. The UK is clearly showing some signs of slowing in some areas, but it is far from widespread and the gloom here seems way overdone still.

1. Markets. So the “tug of war” between the weak US and the powerful BRIC led rest of the world continues. The St Legers is not that far away now, so don’t too many of you go announcing your retirement , just yet…….!

Missade guld haussen, missade urea haussen, missade vete haussen…..och nu har man tydligen också missat Vitamin E haussen.

Från broker rapport idag:
* Vitamin prices also rising - In particular, Vitamin E prices have increased sharply in the past few weeks on the back of plant maintenance activity, a recovery in the size of the Chinese livestock population, and general market growth. This is positive for DSM, and, to a far lesser extent, BASF.

As many of you may be aware, this is Duquesne Capital Management’s 30th year of doing business. During that time, I have often marveled that there can hardly have been a luckier person in the world: I have gotten to do what I love, I have had the pleasure of delivering favorable results to clients (who have become dear friends) which has helped them to achieve their goals, and both Duquesne and its clients have been well rewarded in the process.
While I knew from the outset how much I enjoyed what I was doing, I had no idea that the biggest reward for me would come from the experience of meeting and getting to know so many wonderful people who became clients and friends. The biggest surprise was that I would be well compensated for doing something that has been so rewarding in other respects. I need to express to you my gratitude for the trust you placed in me, and for the joy and satisfaction I have had from helping so many clients achieve their aspirations - this has simply yielded a pleasure for me that I am not sure any person deserves, and which easily transcends monetary compensation.
After much self reflection, I have decided to retire from managing client funds and I wanted to give you prompt notice of my intentions and explain the reasons for this. I have had to recognize that competing in the markets over such a long timeframe imposes heavy personal costs. While the joy of winning for clients is immense, for me the disappointment of each interim drawdown over the years has taken a cumulative toll that I cannot continue to sustain. This is true even though to date we have delivered an unbroken record of positive annual performance which I hope will continue for 2010 as well. And while our clients were certainly pleased that we achieved positive results for 2008 and 2009 in a challenging environment, as you may have surmised I was dissatisfied with those results because they did not match my own, internal long-term standard.
You may remember that I chose to leave Soros Fund Management ten years ago because the challenge of managing an enormous amount of capital was having a clear impact on my ability to perform, as well as my state of being. Unfortunately, as Duquesne has grown, these factors have again emerged. I continue to care deeply about performing for our clients, and the stress of performing in a way that I consider to be disappointing - even if you do not share that view - persists in exacting a high emotional toll, with the result that I have concluded that this change is necessary.
We will be providing you with further information as to the timing and other details of this process. I will also be hosting meetings in Pittsburgh and New York in the upcoming weeks to express my gratitude to you face to face, and to answer any questions you may have, and I will be forwarding to you shortly the schedule for those meetings.
It has been a wonderful experience and I am deeply grateful for your trust over the years. I look forward to this change in my activities with excitement and anticipation and to continuing our relationship in a more personal way.
With very warm regards,
Stanley F. Druckenmiller

http://www.forbes.com/2010/08/17/high-frequency-traders-rebranding-personal-finance-principal-traders.html

Jag känner starkt att M&A och LBOs äntligen kommer bli ett massivt tema på börsen snart. Mer ska skrivas om detta,  men tills vidare räcker det med följande typiskt engelskt “master of the universe” aktiga kommentar:

“We are optimistic about the intermediate term resurgence of the market for corporate control and the opportunities it will present for us” (Erik Mindich i Eton Parks senaste månadsbrev)

Ingen mindre än Tony Robbins

Varnar för kommande krasch

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/tony-robbins-channels-paul-tudor-jones-ii-issues-caution-4568.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+TradersNarrative+%28Trader%27s+Narrative%29

Varför far mina tankar till Eniro när jag läser denna strip?

En av höstens absoluta höjdpunkter kommer ju bli lanseringen av Yellow Revolution under Q4. Det som ska få Eniro att gå från en “search engine” till en “purchase engine”……Ett paradigm skifte på gula sidorna. Världen kommer aldrig vara sig lik efter detta igen.

Med anledning av att Kungen av Blankning är på besök i Stockholm så återpublicerar Finansblogg länk till följande tal från tidigare i sommar.

Varför tycker alla att det är så svårt att blanka?
När kommer Sveriges första “short only” hedgefond?

http://myinvestingnotebook.blogspot.com/2010/05/jim-chanos-power-of-negative-thinking.html

Det här är kanske inte ett världsrekord vad gäller dyraste fastigheten om man räknar absolut belopp (Villa Leopold gick ju för nästan $300m) - det borde vara den dyraste bostad som sålts räknat per kvm (sek 450.000 per kvm för 1200 kvm). Long live the real estate bubble……
By Kelvin Wong and Ronnie Koo

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) — Henderson Land Development Co., the developer controlled by Hong Kong billionaire Lee Shau-kee, said it sold a house in one of the city’s most expensive districts for HK$660 million ($85 million).

The price agreed to by an unidentified buyer for the 13,033 square-foot (1,210 square-meter) house in the south side of Hong Kong Island is equivalent to HK$50,641 a square foot, Henderson Land said on its website today.

The value of Hong Kong luxury homes may climb 10 percent in the second half on record-low mortgage rates and strong economic growth, according to Jones Lang LaSalle Inc. Hong Kong’s government is attempting to curb a 38 percent surge in home prices since the beginning of 2009 amid concern housing is becoming unaffordable.

“This shows the demand for high-end luxury properties is still going strong,” said Wong Leung-sing, an associate director at Centaline Property Agency Ltd.

Luxury homes are those with at least 1,000 square feet or costing at least HK$10 million.

Henderson, Hong Kong’s fifth-biggest builder by market value, said in October that it sold 24 luxury flats for as much as a record HK$88,000 a square foot. Eight months later, it said 20 of the sales fell through, sparking investigations by the government and police. The company has denied any wrongdoing and the police and government officials have declined to comment on their probes.

Henderson will take a charge of HK$734 million against earnings after prospective buyers canceled purchases of the apartments at the 39 Conduit Road luxury development in the Mid- Levels district, it said on June 15.

Under en off-site i New York med mitt lilla trading team så hade vi en sejour med en “trading coach”. Vi har ju alla läst och beundrat Ari Kiev och vad han gjort med SAC…….Vad månde man lära sig för tricks och hur mycket bättre trader månde man bliva av att ligga på soffan hos en professionell hjärnskrynklare?

För det första så var det sammanlagda intrycket av eventet, som så ofta på finansmarknaden när man bygger upp stora förväntningar inför, en liten besvikelse. Coachen, som må vara anonym i detta sammanhang hade mer än 15 års erfarenhet från Wall Street från firmor som Morgan Stanley, UBS och Citigroup levde inte riktigt upp till mina höga förväntningar eller till de $500 per timme som chargades. Man kanske måste gå upp en prisklass för att verkligen lära sig sluta förlora miljoner….

Hur som helst, det kändes ändå som ett nyttigt första skrapande på ytan vad gäller detta ämne. Jag kommer fortsätta att leta tills jag hittar min Ari.

Det hanns såklart gå igenom en hel del under våra timmar men de fem saker som jag kommer ihåg nu när jag bläddrar igenom mina notes är:

1/ understand your inner game of money - understand your  ”Financial Capacity”

2/ recognize and stop your sabotage patterns that cause your YOYO effect

3/ do not fear staying out of the game for too long

4/ do not expect to lose

5/ do not expect the market to care about your P&L

Coachen kom tillbaka till samma ganska självklara citat från Darwin:

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change”

Over and out. Nu tar jag semester.

Just idag kändes det så i alla fall, dock så den första dagen på länge. En liten mer långsiktig fakta är att antalet noterade handlade bolag i USA är ned med nästan 50% på 10 år. För 10 år sedan fanns det över 9000 noterade bolag i USA som kom in med årsredovisning till SEC. Förra året var samma siffra 6450 och i år bara 4100 så här långt. Vad betyder detta? IPO marknaden har varit död länge. Vad mer?

optionsmarknaden forvantar sig lika stor rorelse pa rapportdag i SEB som i ASML (4.5%). Det kanns som riktigt lange sedan SEB rorde sig sa mycket pa rapport. Tex forvantar sig marknaden bara 2.8% i Infineon och bara 2.6% i Credit Suisse

ValueTrees e-handels site ar nu lanserad

Ga in pa saydada.se och kop

Tex nagot ur produktserien “Little People”, populart hos familjen Svanberg

http://www.saydada.se/sv/artiklar/leksaker/figurer-och-miniatyrer/lp-disc-airplane-sounds.html

Purfarsk sentiment studie fran BarCap dar 70% av tillfragade investerare tror pa fortsatt baisse / riskoff i Q3. Ett skal sa bra som nagot att kopa och tro att 1040 haller
We recently conducted our regular quarterly survey of market sentiment across our global client base. We got another very good resonse to the Survey, capturing the views of 390 clients, comprising a broad range of investors including hedge funds, real money managers, proprietary trading desks, corporates and official institutions.

This quarter’s survey is particularly interesting because it took place at a time of unusual investor uncertainty and increasing pessimism. The general mood of worried uncertainty is reflected in the responses to several questions: following the sell-off of risky assets in Q2 around 70% of clients think that Q3 will see either further short-term weakness or prices remaining close to current levels; only one is six think that we are close to the bottom. Similarly, over 80% of clients think that the EUR is likely to have a further, albeit gradual, decline or to be rangebound; only 4% expect a EUR rally. (It is also worth noting that fewer than 10% think the EUR is likely to collapse.) Unsurprisingly, given the prevailing environment, positions are relatively light: five times as many clients responded that they are running light positions than both large and at limit combined.

The lack of heavy positioning means that it is unlikely to be an important consideration when thinking about pricing implications to the key issues that are likely to emerge in Q3. We published our FX Quarterly Small is beautiful, last week, in which we discussed the themes we expect to develop over the next three months and how we think they are likely to affect markets. One of the most important conclusions that we discuss in it is that the G4 currencies are likely to underperform the rest of the G10. The survey results suggest that investors share some of our pessimism about prospects for the G4 currencies - around 81% of respondents think that one of the G4 currencies is the most attractive short position from a risk-return perspective, with the EUR easily the most popular in this category. That contrasts with fewer than 40% of clients who view one of the G4 currencies as offering the most attractive long position. That said, the USD is thought to be the most attractive long currency, and is viewed as the best way to position for further problems emerging in the euro area by a comfortable margin.

Few respondents think that short-term G4 interest rates are going anywhere quickly. Q1 next year is the mode response for the first rate hike by any of the G4 and around 62% of respondents think that either bull flattening or bear steepening is the most likely next move for G4 yield curves - votes were evenly split between the two. Finally, perhaps the most interesting question is always: which is the most underpriced risk? And at a time of nervous confusion it is particularly helpful to see the results. They suggest that concerns about the situation in China remain close to investors’ minds and many fear a double-dip recession - of course both could happen so they should not be viewed as disjoint events. Interestingly, despite it being viewed as the most attractive long position from a risk-reward perspective, more than 15% of respondents thought that USD collapse is the most underpriced risk facing financial markets.

Ny bra kopia på nätet av Paul Tudor Jones videon från 80-talet
http://www.tudou.com/programs/view/XH5W4vffBbY/